What did you watch on TV last night? How did you watch it? Chances are you turned on the TV and skipped straight past the old five channels and into Netflix or Stan, or perhaps into iView if you were feeling adventurous. Our research confirms what know intuitively: that video consumption is shifting to on-demand content, driven by high quality content and a better user experience. But is live TV dead? Is Netflix the future of TV?
Our research has found that on-demand content will account for the majority of viewing by as early as 2020, when SVOD is forecast to account for 81 minutes per day, vs. 74 minutes for live FTA. Similarly, live TV viewing is expected to decline by nearly 75% over the next ten years to 2027, both in terms of absolute minutes and share of total consumption. Indeed, declines in live TV viewing have been accelerating: average daily live TV viewing has dropped by 36 minutes (20% decline) in the past three years as older cohorts begin to follow younger audience trends.
However, in spite of these clear trends, we expect that live TV will remain relevant for many years to come, still accounting for nearly 50 minutes in 2027 as the natural home of live sports, breaking news, and ‘appointment’ viewing. Within this shifting environment, FTA broadcasters are already adapting quickly and as a result will remain important players, but they must invest heavily in on-demand services, with a relentless focus on viewer experience.