New Zealand Telco Market Outlook

The retail NZ telco market is holding steady despite drastic decline in fixed voice. UFB rollout and increasing mobile usage will slow down overall decline.

Retail telco market revenue growth rates by segment

We expect the overall retail telco market to remain flat (2018-2022 CAGR 0.0%) with mobile growth driven by a move to post-paid plans and 4G/5G to offset the structural decline in fixed voice. Total retail revenues will reach NZ$5.4bn in 2022

With UFB deployment well on track and increasing 4G penetration, we expect a rise in competitive intensity as players look to capture share across a broader set of product offerings

Fixed voice continues its structural decline as subscribers shun the landline and migrate away from standalone fixed voice services to mobile bundles and broadband + VOIP bundles

The UFB rollout is on track to reach 80% of the population by the end of 2019 and has been recently extended by the Government to cover up to 87% of the population by 2022

The NZ Government recently announced a set of reforms including a move towards utility-style regulation, copper deregulation in areas where UFB is available, and increased oversight over quality and reliability of broadband services

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